Photo by Matthew Staver, Bloomberg

In a new Quinnipiac University poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus participants, Ted Cruz has moved to second place with 23%, doubling his support from October. The Texas senator has now moved within the margin of error of frontrunner Donald Trump, who received 25% of support. Ben Carson’s numbers have fallen dramatically since October, down 10 points, from a high of  to 18%, while Senator Marco Rubio’s support remains static at 13%. Jeb Bush received 4% of support, just one point above Senator Rand Paul.

Quinnipiac finds near-universal opposition from Iowa Republicans when it comes to accepting Syrian refugees into the US, with likely voters siding 5-1 in opposition. Iowans think Trump is best when it comes to economic issues (49%), and combating terrorism (30%), while 24% of likely caucus-goers say Cruz is best at tackling foreign policy.

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll said of the race, “Last month, we said it was Dr. Ben Carson’s turn in the spotlight. Today, the spotlight turns to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. The Iowa Republican Caucus has become a two-tiered contest: Businessman Donald Trump and neurosurgeon Ben Carson lead on the outsider track, and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio lead among party insiders.”

Bloomberg Politics reporter John McKormick says, “even after months of candidate visits and millions of dollars in campaign ads, many Iowa Republicans interviewed this week don’t seem anywhere close to making their final decision, even though the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses are less than two months away.”

With less than two months till the February 1st Iowa caucus, the air war in the Hawkeye State is ramping up. The months of October and November have seen the biggest number of campaign ads as the race tightens. In light of the shifting polls, expect even more ad spending in Iowa as the date of the caucus nears.