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Nate Silver vs. The Academy

February 22, 2013 By WHC Insider

Google Talk with Nate Silver

The Academy Awards have been as mysterious as the electoral college, but perhaps no more? Nate Silver, flexing his mighty 2012 election data, announced today that he’d take a third try at figuring out why little gold men go to certain people and not others.

“My track record? Nine correct picks in 12 tries, for a 75 percent success rate. Not bad, but also not good enough to suggest that there is any magic formula for this,” he wrote. Even a 75 percent standing is impressive when many self-proclaimed “oscar gurus” are on par with their politico cousins in D.C. Sure, saying a democrat will take California is just as easy as saying that a Steven Spielberg film could get Best Picture or Daniel Day-Lewis is convincing as Abraham Lincoln.

Silver instead relied on the same formula from the election: taking a variety of data from insider (e.g. The Directors Guild of America, Screen Actors Guild) and outsider (e.g. Chicago Film Critics Association, Golden Globes) sources that’ve chosen their favorites. The data does appear to be skewing heavily for Argo to take Best Picture while Lincoln sweeps up the rest. But it’s the Best Supporting Actress category that will make or break Silver’s future chances at Oscar:

“There is considerably less reason for last-minute campaigning in this category: Anne Hathaway as about as safe a bet to win for “Les Misérables” as Mitt Romney was to win Utah. If Sally Field or Amy Adams wins instead, it will probably be time for me to retire from the Oscar-forecasting business.”

We’ll find out on Sunday whether Nate Silver can ever show his face in Hollywood ever again.

Filed Under: 2012 Election, Entertainment Tagged With: Academy Awards, Anne Hatheway, Argo, Entertainment, Les MIserables, Lincoln, Nate Silver, Sally FIeld

Nate Silver To Break Internet Tomorrow During Reddit AMA

January 7, 2013 By WHC Insider

If you throw questions about narwhals and wizards at Nate Silver on the Internet, will he answer? At least he will tomorrow.

The FiveThirtyEight blogger/statician announced yesterday that he’ll be taking tomorrow on Reddit’s AMA. There’re already nine posts heralding the overlord of the Internet and wondering if he’ll answer whether he really is a witch. People like to speculate on Silver’s predictions being mixed with magic after late-night photos featuring one of the many hats he wears.
[Read more…]

Filed Under: 2012 Election, Correspondents, Entertainment, News Tagged With: Media, Nate Silver, News, Reddit

We All Like Hillary Clinton (For Now)

December 12, 2012 By WHC Insider

Tina Brown, Meryl Streep and Hillary Clinton Stage

If you thought you liked Hillary Clinton before, you may not in 2016. So claims data guru Nate Silver today at FiveThiryEight where he examines the curious case of how everyone loves the soon-to-be-former secretary of state.
[Read more…]

Filed Under: DC, Media Strategy, News Media, The White House, Washington Tagged With: 2008 Election, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, FiveThirtyEight, Hillary Clinton, Nate Silver, New York Times

Why Would The Times Give Up Nate Silver?

November 28, 2012 By WHC Insider

It seems silly to ask, but does anyone really think the New York Times would willingly give up Nate Silver, the winner of the 2012 election?

[Read more…]

Filed Under: 2012 Election, Correspondents, DC, Media Strategy, News Tagged With: 2012 Election, Business Insider, Correspondents, DC, Jill Abramson, Mark Thompson, Media, Nate Silver, the New York Times

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About White House Correspondents Insider

Exploring “behind the scenes” of the most powerful city in the world — Washington, D.C. — and those who cover it.

We track the White House Correspondents’ weekend and all the activities around it, from journalists and media companies to the White House and politicos.

Tammy Haddad is Co-Founder and Editor-In-Chief of WHC Insider and CEO of Haddad Media.

White House Correspondents Insider is not affiliated with or approved by the White House Correspondents’ Association, which is a registered trademark of the WHCA.

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